One day after Maryland men’s basketball secured their fourth consecutive win and eighth in their last nine games, college basketball analyst John Fanta joined the Kevin Sheehan Show on Friday to dive into his thoughts on Maryland, why the Terps are a “darkhorse to reach the Final Four” and what to watch for heading into the NCAA Tournament:
On whether Maryland has the pieces to make an NCAA Tournament run
“I’m in agreement with you, Kevin. I think that Maryland is a second weekend NCAA Tournament team, if not beyond that. Yes, they have a real shot to reach San Antonio this April. A darkhorse to reach the Final Four. And I know what you're thinking, well, what about Auburn, John? What about Duke? Those teams are at the top that, they are. But March Madness isn't always about who the best team was all season. Now, Maryland's had a pretty dang good year. There were some concerns early in Big Ten play. They need to package together. But what Maryland has that other teams don't is they're peaking at the right time. They have progressed to now be playing – you want to be playing your best basketball right around the end of February to channel it into March and keep it rolling. They're riding a wave right now. Why are they built to win in March? Well, they play complementary basketball. The crab fives, as they're calling them, their starting five is playing as well as any starting five in America but their 17th in offensive efficiency. Kevin, that is a massive leap from last year when they were 155th in the country. From 155 to 17. On the defensive end of the floor, they’re 20th in efficiency. So they're guarding. But I think when you combine their front court, Julian Reese and Derik Queen, with their backcourt of [Ja’Kobi] Gillespie, of [Rodney] Rice, of [Selton] Miguel. They are getting a lot of balance to what they're doing offensively, and I credit Kevin Willard and his staff. He identified what he wanted in the portal, he brought those pieces in and they have a really well-rounded roster.”
On what Maryland’s most realistic seed could be in the NCAA Tournament
“Well, if they won out and they make to the Big Ten Championship Game, you could be talking about a three. I think the realistic feeling is a four, just by virtue of the challenge of the Big Ten and I think it's such a deep league. And for Maryland, I think they will end up being a five seed. If you said to me, John, what do you predict? I think they'll end up being a five, which is where they're about right now. They could get up to that four line, maybe. It's just hard because you got a bunch of teams that are competing for that four line and you also have to see fours lose. So like, for instance, Kansas was in the top 16 reveal over the weekend election committee. They've obviously struggled. Their Bill Self’s team is having a free fall right now – 5-6 in their last 11 games. But the committee said point blank, Michigan State and Marquette were the first two teams outside of the top 16. Well, Marquette owns a head-to-head win over Maryland at Maryland. Full body of work, Michigan State, they've got Michigan tonight. In other words, Maryland would have to see certain teams lose while they keep winning. And they can keep winning, I just think there's a crowded group. Missouri is another team that's really coming on and has a strong resume. They beat Alabama earlier this week. I love what Maryland is. I love who they are. I thought, Kevin, a month ago if you had asked, I would have said, yeah, they could be in an eight-nine game. The fact that they leaped up to the five line, Maryland fans should look at that as a very good thing and you're dangerous. If you have a top five line in the NCAA Tournament, you have a real shot to get to the second weekend. And then at that point, you throw the ball up in the air. Everyone's like, well, can they make the Final Four? Can they do that? I always say this – it's hard to predict exactly when you don't have a bracket, and even then, Kevin, as you well know, the madness brings a high variance of results. I think what you should be encouraged of as Maryland fans is last year was dark and you walked into this year saying, well, now coach Willard and staff, they got a piece together here or else the pressure is going to rise again. And guess what? They set the pressure. And I think right now, they're exceeding what people thought they would be this season.”
On what teams could give Maryland a hard time in the NCAA Tournament
“Well, a team that would negate their size and really force them into contested jump shots, but a team that would wipe out what Reese and Queen are, because that's the base. That is in the recipe to their success. That's what you absolutely have to have is that frontcourt flourishing. So I say, you know what, I'm going to make Selton Miguel and Rodney Rice hit shots over me consistently, and then, yeah, I'll get Reese some foul trouble and that's the formula.
Now, that's easier said than done. I think, you know, when you look at the depth of the SEC and you look at how that league shaken out, I'd be curious to see how Maryland would match up with some of those teams in that league. I don't think there's a team in the Big 10 that gives them a lot of problems. You know why, Kevin, from a matchup standpoint? Because, like everyone's talked about how Michigan causes matchup problems with Danny Wolf and Vlad Golden. I don't disagree at all with a lot of other teams, but not with Maryland. Maryland has the frontcourt to say we're going to meet you and we're going to defend you, and we can limit you offensively. And on our side, we believe that we've got the pieces to score, to score consistently and score in a complementary way. I just think it would be a team that would apply a heavy amount of perimeter ball pressure their perimeter. And the SEC has teams that could do that, and would say, you know what? We're going to make it really hard just for you to get it to the front court. We're going to make you take contested jump shots. Because, to me, Maryland's offense, while we have seen their guards, Ja’Kobi Gillespie is playing fantastic basketball, Selton Miguel and Rodney Rice, they're the perfect complementary pieces to a backcourt as well and can get 20 points on any given night. It's still the fact that they're getting opportunities because you are an inside-out team. Your team can flourish on the interior and it puts pressure on a defense to say, let's open it up, and you got to pick your poison. So for me, I think that they're a team that an athletic, lengthy team, to give them problems, but there's not a lot of teams out there like that.”
On specific higher-seeded teams that can be tough for Maryland
“Well, definitely on Houston and definitely on Tennessee, although Tennessee sometimes falls into droughts offensively. Like Maryland's offense, to me, is more potent than Tennessee. The problem is Tennessee can stick you in the mud. Other teams, St. John's could give Maryland some issues because of Zuby Ejiofor, because they're the second-best defensive team in America. Now that would be fascinating. Joe Lunardi currently has Maryland and St. John's meeting in Seattle in the second-round game. That would be Kevin Willard against his mentor and his teacher and his former boss in Rick Pitino. That would be a game layered with storylines between Maryland and St. John's if it happened, because there's just – Pitino is like a second father to Willard with his dad, Ralph, having worked with Rick as well. So that would be very, very interesting. What else comes to mind in terms of teams that could cause problems? I agree on [Texas] A&M. I thought of them, but again, a team that if Gillespie, Miguel and Rice were able to negate what Wade Taylor and Zhuric Phelps do, I'm not concerned with Maryland having trouble against A&M’s frontcourt, I'm not. Now, Maryland, can put you in the blender and they're tough in that regard. Missouri, I wouldn't worry about as much. I think Maryland seen it with UCLA. A&M and UCLA play similarly. You know, could give Maryland some issues, a challenge, would be Clemson, because Ian Schieffelin is a quality big and Chase Hunter is a really good player and look, they made the Elite Eight a years ago. Another team to monitor is Mississippi State. They're tough. They're hard-nosed. They do have the length and versatility. They're hanging around that four or five line right now. But here's the thing, Maryland's going to cause problems for those teams too. Problems for those teams defensively, because Kevin, you have to pick your poison right now. All five guys, they've had six games this year, Maryland, where the five starters have scored in double figures. And in terms of the way Maryland can defend, it's a top-20 defensive team. They guard. They're committed to that end of the floor. So as much as these teams can cause problems for them, they also pose their own issues with how they play and with the fact that you have a lottery pick. I always look at it when I look at these tournament matches or any marquee magics, and I say this, if I were to hold a draft and I were to start drafting players who would go first? Right now, because of Derik Queen Maryland and Reese, for that matter, Maryland has difference makers on the floor that you could argue for that number one pick if you were to draft between a Maryland and a Tennessee, or a Maryland and an A&M. That's the talent level. They identify talent correctly. Right now in college basketball, you're not just a coach. You're a general manager. And you might hire a general manager in your program with the money and stuff to handle the money, but as a coach, you have to be a GM too and determine who you want on your roster. It's very hard to do, but they have done a nice job of fulfilling it this year as opposed to last year when things did not go well.”
On who the best team in the country is
“It’s still Auburn. Here’s why: that team offensively is the best in the country because they have Chad Baker-Mazara, Tahaad Pettiford, Miles Kelly, Denver Jones who Denver Jones by the way, he turns the water off on the defensive end of the floor, taking on your best guard. And they have Johni Broome, who’s been unbelievable this year. Where I say they’re number one, offensively, they ran their stuff to a tee on Saturday at Alabama. Now is Alabama a great defensive team? No and it’s going to hold Alabama back from winning a national championship. Could they make the Final Four? It’s really hard to win it all when your defense is as inconsistent as it is and we saw that – I mean they gave up 110 points to Missouri earlier this week. No offense, but that’s pretty bad. What stands out to me about Auburn is that they walked into that one vs. two game on the road and you know what they said? We’re going to take away open threes for Alabama. We are going to totally shut them down on the perimeter in terms of open looks. They might still make some contested ones. But we believe we have the perimeter defense to do that and guess what? They did. See, a lot of teams can sit in the film room or sit in a scout and say, we're going to take away the three. Kevin, it's nice in theory, but it doesn't always happen when you actually get out there because when you're facing a dangerous offensive team, it's hard to fully stop them from doing that. And they held Mark Sears to 4-of-17 from the floor in that game. But they've done it a number of times this year. Duke beat them at Cameron. Duke's going to beat anybody at Cameron Indoor. You know, they're that good. They're a tough, hard, nosed defensive team. The thing with Duke is that is going to be an inevitable question is, has Duke been inflated because the ACC looks like Gonzaga in the WCC? Look, I mean, it's not to be, you know, mean or disparaging, but when you're in 18-team league and you might only have four teams make the tournament, and here's the thing: In what world is it acceptable for North Carolina to be missing the tournament two out of three years?”
On another team outside top four seed-line who could be dangerous in the NCAA Tournament
“Memphis, because of Tyrese Hunter and Haggerty. Potent guard play, Penny Hardaway’s team plays really good defense. People forget this: couple years ago when Florida Atlantic made the Final Four, their hardest game was the first-round game against Memphis. I thought Memphis should have beaten them, and who knows what that could have started for Memphis. So keep an eye on the Tigers. I know that this is outside the box because they've struggled in the Big Ten, but do not sleep on Dana Altman and Oregon because Dana showed he could make a tournament run before. He's still got a team that's got some talent and is dangerous, and when they are engaged defensively, they could be a good team. It's the problem is, it's been up-and-down there. I still like Ole Miss, you know, I still think that they've got some pieces to make a run. Right now, they're hovering around the six or seven line. They're one dangerous team with Sean Pedulla and Dre Davis, and they're a team to, you know, to have nothing else monitor. St Mary's, Randy Bennett, he's just so steady. Like every single year, his teams are just solid. They play the right way, and he again, he knows how to recruit internationally and he's done it again. His leading scorer, Augustas Marciulionis has been terrific, and he's got another kid at 6-foot-8 from Lithuania, Paulius Murauskas, who plays the game the right way. They're deliberate. They're tough to beat because they don't turn the ball over and they play hard defensively. And they could be in a 7-10 game, but then they face a two seed, and who knows what happens in the tournament. So I think that those are a couple of teams to watch. In terms of some mid-majors that could make the Sweet 16, watch out for Yale again. Yale beat Auburn last year. They got a kid named John Poulakidas who I think it's absolutely terrific. Drake is dangerous. Ben McCollum is one of the 15 on the Naismith men's college coach of the year midseason watch list. Look out for the Bulldogs. They got a kid named Bennett Sturtz, who I think is a stud. And a Big 12 team that is in the top five of the standings, that is playing good basketball. Kevin Young, who came from the Phoenix Suns, he has AJ Dybantsa coming in number one recruit in the class next year. He's got momentum now. BYU is for real. Do not sleep on them. And I'll give you one more mid major to watch that could be a 14 or a 15 seed, but I'm telling you right now, do not sleep on them to win a game and pull off a shocker and that's South Alabama. You know, when you’re filling out your bracket and you’re wondering, they're out of the Sun Belt. The Jaguars do have talent. They've got balance. They got a guard. His name is Miles Corey and he can flat out fill it up. So if South Alabama shows up on your bracket and you want to pick a little Cinderella to win a game, keep an eye on them.”
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